Book of the month: “The Next 100 Years” by Pavel Luksha

There are so many things we can die from, so it seems a bit naive to think that we as a species will be fine. Nevertheless, Luksha has a vision on what should be done to save the future

While I was reading "The Next 100 years" by Pavel Luksha, I kept wondering:

• Do we really need to care about what happens in 100 years?

• Are we capable of changing things for the better?

• And who are "we" in the first place?

Who plans for as far as 100 years?

Common people don't plan anything beyond the horizon of a few years. And one billion people worldwide, who live on less than one dollar a day, being in a survival mode, probably, don't plan very much at all.

At the same time, Liu Cixin, the bestselling author of 'Three Body Problem', explored the idea of an even longer planning period of 400 years. What a thrilling reading experience that has been!

Photo by Josh Tere on Unsplash, handwriting by Gleb Shu

Speaking about sci-fi, have you ever noticed, that Thanos from Marvel, the Emperor from Star Wars and Sauron from Lord of the Rings all had far-reaching plans? And let's not forget Hitler who had a vision for a "Thousand-Year Reich".

Apparently, people who plan for 100 years ahead are either villains or sci-fi writers.

Futurists and parents

There is, however, another kind who do this all the time - the futurists! These are the ones who give TED talks and write nonfiction books.

Richard R Eberiga, Nikole Brooks Bethea, Ian Goldin, Robert Muggah, Steve Farrar, Agnieszka Biskup, Giovanni Pota, Jen E Candy, Sophie Domingues-Montanari, Sreekumar V T, George Friedman and some others have tried to answer the question "What could happen in 100 years?”.

Still, there is another 100-year-book that is 100% worth checking out. It is "The Next 100 Years" by Pavel Luksha, who, by the way, does not like to be called a "futurist". But what else can you call someone who has written a book about the future?

Photo by Kobby Mendez on Unsplash, handwriting by Gleb Shu

I'm not a villain, nether I'm a futurist or a sci-fi author (yet), but first and foremost, I am a father. I have three children, and I'm doing everything I can to give them a good life. But in 2024, it looks like it is not enough for us parents to feed, educate, and care for our children. Now we have to save the planet for them. What a burden, but here we are!

Extinction threat is real

Actually one of the ideas from the book that stroke me the most was that the human extinction threat is very real. More to that, it has happened before and not once, but for at least five times! Remember the dinosaurs? Gone!

Just like the Anasazi Indians and the Easter Islanders, who obviously did not plan for the next 100 years, but were busy with devastating their habitat and killing each other, we can go extinct. But who cares? Well, I do. I would like to make sure that the planet is still habitable by the time my kids grow up.

Photo by Stephanie Morcinek on Unsplash, handwriting by Gleb Shu

If conversations about the distant future were once the domain of sci-fi writers, futurists, and villains, now it's something we all need to talk about, whether we have children or not.

To choose, we need to be aware of our options. Pavel Luksha

"The Next 100 Years" not only lists the future challenges and provides high-level strategic solutions, but contains a specific to-do list for each kind of actor, ranging from investors and policy makers to activists and ordinary citizens.

Things we can die from

Supporting his arguments with references, Pavel points out the following "critical boundaries" (read, threats). Not all of them lead directly to extinction, but anyways here they are:

A. Planetary boundaries

1. Crisis of non-renewability

2. Climate crisis

3. Biosphere collapse

B. Technological ceiling

1. Risk of existentially lethal technology deployment

2. Misuse of existentially dangerous technologies

3. Technologies that can create “evolutionary dead ends” for humanity

C. Social foundation

1. Biomedical policy crisis

2. Social injustice crisis

3. Global food threats

4. Threat of a global war

D. Cognitive & spiritual foundation

1. Inability to comprehend & govern complexity

2. Crisis of trust and understanding

3. Disruption to collective cognitive abilities and empathy

4. Depletion of scientific knowledge creation capacity

Photo by Zachary Kadolph on Unsplash, handwriting by Gleb Shu

Sounds like a lot, right? But if we translate this from futuristic language into everyday English, we'd get basically the following:

• We can die from over-exploiting the Planet and making it uninhabitable,

• Or we can die from some technology, be it nuclear bomb, or an AI, or whatever,

• Or we can die from another coronavirus of a kind,

• Or we can die from becoming hopelessly dumb after spending our lives on endless scrolling Instagram feed.

There are so many things we can die from, so it seems a bit naive to think that we as a species will be fine. Nevertheless, Pavel has a solid vision on what could and should be done in order to leave the Planet for our grandchildren in a decent condition.

The search for this dream must not solely remain the concern of the privileged few, but must engage the participation of all communities, regions, and movements. Pavel Luksha

22 steps into the 22nd century

The author provides 22 steps into the 22nd century, and underscores that each and every one of these steps should be aligned with NICE framework, that is, Nature-aligned, Intelligent, Complex, Empowering.

The 22 steps are formed in 4 major groups of evolution:

• The economy should become circular, regenerative and using nature-based technologies.

• The new form of governance implies a post-national world with a planetary council of all beings. "All beings" means that we have to find a way to communicate not only with dolphins, whales, ants, bees, but basically with all other species of the biosphere. Cool, huh?

• The evolution of culture is about planitizenship (I told ya!), institutions of collective trauma healing and positive peace as a baseline.

• The evolution of consciousness entails collective hybrid wisdom and meta-language of living complexity, whatever that means.

Clash of paradigms

Basically, we need to make a transition from a "consumer society" to a "participatory society" focused on promoting balance instead of perpetual growth. We need to stop buying things and start giving to causes that are bigger than ourselves. Sounds a bit utopian, but what is the alternative?

Screeshot from “The next 100 years” by Pavel Luksha

Luksha foresees a clash of paradigms - old vs. new - somewhere between 2035 and 2060. This transition may take the form of violent conflict resulting in the collapse of civilization. Or, if we start building a new socio-economic paradigm today, the transition could be peaceful, leading us directly into a bright solarpunk future.

All of this may sound a bit unfounded and unrealistic, but indigenous cultures often discuss the need to make choices based on their impact seven generations from now. So, the attempt to pave the way for a sustainable future is not something radically new, but rather a return to the roots.

Photo by Mike Erskine on Unsplash, handwriting by Gleb Shu

Throughout the book, Luksha returns to the idea of enhancing modern decision-making approaches with traditional indigenous practices.

What can I do here and now?

It took me a while to read the book, because the text is rich with external links, each of which is a rabbit hole of interesting ideas. But all the time throughout the book I had a very practical question in the back of my mind: "This all sounds great, especially when we talk about co-governing the planet together with whales and bees, but what can I do here and now?"

And in the last chapter of the book "IN SEARCH OF BRIDGE BUILDERS" Pavel Luksha gives a detailed answer to this question, prescribing an action according to the category of each possible actor.

💵 Investors can invest in business with regenerative (rather than extractive) approach.

🤠 Entrepreneurs and business leaders can prioritize the well-being of their employees, customers, suppliers, and contractors alongside profitability as one of the business goals.

🤵 Political leaders can promote the principles of "deep democracy" based on active citizen engagement in political life.

🧑‍🔬 Researchers and educators can teach leadership, entrepreneurship, self-regulation practices, and empathy, as well as promote future literacy.

🪧 Activists can organize collaborations and dialogues between communities.

💼 Diplomats can promote a culture of peace and facilitate intercultural collaborations among young people.

👨‍🎨 Artists can explore the theme of a world that works for 100% of humanity through artistic means and creative self-expression.

🌱 Everyone can learn about the trends shaping our collective future, find and unite with like-minded humans to become creators of a positive future, for example, by sharing or commenting this essay — I would love to hear your ideas!

Seven generations ahead

So, do you have to care about what happens 100 years from now? Seemingly, if you are a parent, yes. But even if you are not, why not plan seven generations ahead?

To create a global culture of peace, we must first imagine a peaceful future in our minds. Pavel Luksha

The current paradigm dictates that you must wish for a new iPhone, a shiny car, and a bigger house. Haven't you always found that a little boring? Wouldn't it be more exciting to live a life that is meaningful not just for you, but for generations to come?

According to Luksha, yes, we can probably change things globally for the better, especially if we put it on our individual to-do lists.

And finally, who are these "we" who should be responsible for it? Well, each one of us living today.

Planetary yours,

Gleb Shu